Written by Thomas Magstadt   

Proposition: The most likely doomsday scenario we face is not the one we are constantly being force-fed by dissembling politicians and the corporate-controlled media. The right-wing strategy aimed at diverting public attention from the real crisis at hand arguably poses a greater existential threat to our survival than any of the garden-variety dangers fear-mongering propagandists incessantly warn against. Such diversionary tactics are often exceedingly effective in politics, as in war, but when it comes to the fight against global warming and greenhouse gases they are ultimately self-defeating.

"Climate change" is a catch-all for a wide variety of carbon-induced dangers we all face. Climate change recognizes no boundaries, flags, or creeds. It is real and cannot be ameliorated without international cooperation which in turn requires enlightened statesmanship.

Even howling skeptics don't deny the reality of global warming, but they insist the causes are "natural" and have nothing to do with human activity - as though humans are not part of the natural order. That's the "conservative" policy: deny responsibility and pretend the problem will go away. Anyway, if there's nothing we can do about it, why not just eat, drink, and be merry, right?

With only a handful of pieces, you might think the climate-change policy puzzle would have a simple solution, but you'd be wrong. The pieces themselves are easy enough to identify:

1. World Population Projections Were Too Low

Instead of leveling off at around 9 billion by 2050, world population will rise to over 10 billion by 2100, according to a 2011 U.N. Population Division report. Earlier projections are now thought to have been overly optimistic. In sub-Saharan Africa alone "the population could more than triple, rising from today’s one billion to 3.6 billion, the report said — a sobering forecast for a continent already struggling to provide food and water for its people." If current trends hold, Nigeria's population, for example, will rise from 162 million to 720 million.

If we think the world is too noisy, congested, polluted, or denuded now, imagine what it will be like during the last half of the this century when there are another 3-4 billion people living on a fixed amount of real estate, consuming finite resources, and trying to get to work or school every day. But what was once called the "population bomb" – and met with dire predictions – is now all but forgotten. Curious, don't you think?

2. A CO2 Concentration That's Too High

According to the Nation Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the amount of heat-trapping CO2 in the atmosphere has topped 400 parts per million (ppm), a level last reached on the planet Earth some 2 to 3 million years ago. According to 350.org, "The safe level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 350 parts per million, but the only way to get there is to immediately transition the global economy away from fossil fuels and into renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable farming practices in all sectors (agriculture, transport, manufacturing, etc.)."

But there's certainly no reason to believe that 400 ppm is as high as CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere can or will go. Unless there is an unprecedented effort worldwide to curtail the burning of fossil fuel, 450 ppm will be the new normal in a few decades if not sooner. Ask yourself this: What are the chances that our own leaders will see the light before the sun dims in a carbon cloud? Or this: When has the US ever demonstrated any world leadership on global warming? Or this: Are politicians in Washington more likely to listen to scientists or CEOs? See what I mean?

Here's what Robin Noblin, Alaska director of the Center for Biological Diversity, has to say about it: "Climate change is wreaking havoc on the Arctic, melting sea ice and permafrost, increasing storms and erosion, and making life utterly unpredictable for the people and animals that call the Arctic home…Rather than making vague statements about Arctic stewardship, the Obama administration should put forward real solutions, such as a cap on black carbon emissions and a moratorium on Arctic offshore oil development."

3. An Incurable Disease Ravaging the American Body Politic
Meanwhile, Washington fiddles while the world burns. We're witnessing a deadly kind of moral decay at the heart of government. Evidence:

• Corrupt politicians and a business class addicted to corporate welfare.

• Lobbies write the only legislation that lawmakers can pass and the filibuster trumps all – the Constitution, elections, majority rule, and common sense.

• Partisanship carried to such extremes that paralysis is the only possible outcome.

• A Congress that can't pass a budget but won't cut money for arms we don't need (even Abrams tanks the Pentagon doesn't want!).

4. The Curious Eclipse of Conservation Policy

We're not about to abandon our solemn commitment to driving our jumbo-sized SUVs. We'd rather go over the climate cliff than give up that big shiny gas-guzzling Suburban, Expedition, or Sequoia. The number of cars in the world surpassed the one billion mark in 2010 – that was a billion and counting. The number had jumped by a record 35.6 million vehicles in the previous year. So far this year some 22.4 million new vehicles have rolled off the assembly lines and will soon be clogging our roads and contributing to the carbon crescendo. By the time this article appears, the number will be significantly higher. Go ahead, see for yourself.

There's no reason to believe there will be any slowdown in world production of cars and trucks and difficult to imagine what it would take for that to happen. What's actually happening is quite the opposite – as population increases and global wealth is redistributed from the First World to the Third World (the Second World no longer exists), output of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines rises at constantly accelerating rates. Even the great post-2008 global recession did not impede it (see above).

And yet, there's no talk of conservation of any kind, no pressure to build urban mass transit and long-distance high-speed passenger rail systems of the sort found in virtually other advanced economies, no protest over the billions of dollars poured into building new highways and repairing old ones. (Don't let the highway lobby fool you – roads don't pay for themselves. According to the Public Interest Research Group (PIRG): "…road construction has sucked $600 billion out of America’s public purse since the dawn of the interstate system.")

Actually, instead of recognizing the need for conservation, the trend in this country is strongly in the opposite direction. "US shale oil supply shock shifts global power balance" screams a BBC News headline. "Over the next five years, the US will account for a third of new oil supplies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)." We learn that in the next five years the US will go from world's largest oil importer to a net exporter. The IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven says, "North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world." A supply shock, no less.

Under the circumstances, what won't be a shock is President Obama deciding not nix the Keystone XL pipeline despite growing public opposition, including a recent letter signed by "150 high-profile figures, who between them raised millions for Obama's two election campaigns. The letter is worth quoting at some length:

"Your decision on Keystone may not be so weighty, but we believe it holds a comparable urgency and importance, not strictly as a pipeline decision but as a presidential choice that will signal a fundamentally new direction for our nation...Yours is the last presidency in which it is possible for America to choose a responsible path forward for itself, before climate disruption becomes unmanageably dangerous... The Keystone decision affords you a rare opportunity to pivot away from fossil fuels and towards a clean energy future in a way that signals the necessary sea change… This decision more than any other will signal your direction, your commitment, your resolve. It is the biggest, most explicit statement you will make in this historic moment, the moment when America turns from denial to solutions – or fails to."

Amen.

5. A Public In Denial And Afflicted with Severe Myopia

Nor is the dire predicament we face all the fault of a corrupt Washington and a greedy Wall Street. We elect the bums who sell us out and when they do we re-elect them. The incumbency rate for the House and Senate in the last election was over 90%, higher than in 2010 and the highest since 2004. We not only fail to punish our leaders for not acting responsibly, but on issues such as gun control and, yes, environmental protection we are at least as likely to punish them if they do.

If there's one thing we love more than our guns, it's our cars. Like guns, cars symbolize freedom to millions of Americans. In short run, guns are arguably more dangerous. In the long run, it's the other way around. Guns kill people; cars and carbon are killing the planet.

The fact that something so inimical to our survival as a species does not make a dent in our consciousness calls into serious question whether we are, in fact, the most intelligent life form. What other species is more self-destructive? Perhaps evolutionary biologists can answer this question, but I can't think of one.

Back to the puzzle mentioned at the beginning. All five pieces are easily identified and supported by ample empirical data and a wealth of anecdotal experience. But these five easy pieces are rarely if ever connected in a way that clearly shows the depth of the impending crisis humanity is facing.

The table is set. If we don't put the pieces together, we'll never get the picture. And we'll just keep happily dancing toward doomsday.

Note: A version of this article with links to sources appeared at Nation Of Change (5/16/2013).