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writing for godot

Facts and Opinions

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Written by Julian Modiano   
Monday, 16 December 2013 04:20
Unfortunately, most people have an opinion that they’re supposedly knowledgeable and fervently passionate about. It is interesting that so many of these opinions contradict each other and cause furious debate, at a time when the availability of information, thanks to the internet, means that the facts can be easily checked. The problem, I believe, is that people don’t really care about the facts. Peoples’ opinions are mostly just random feelings mixed with what they were told while they grew up, and then years of rationalization to make it make sense. But I think it might be helpful to do a little exercise many of us did in our first history classes to help us learn the difference between facts and opinions. It’s a simple exercise: one names a fact, and then an opinion. For example:

Kennesaw is a town in Georgia with a population of roughly 29,783. Fact. Kennesaw is a beautiful town to visit. Opinion. In 1981, Kennesaw had a crime rate of 4,332 per 100,000 (while the national average was 3,899 per 100,000). Fact. The high level of crime could be fixed by passing harsher prison sentences. Opinion. In 1982, a law passed that forced every head of household in Kennesaw that could afford one to own and maintain a gun. Fact. This would obviously lead to an increase in violent crime, since more guns equals more crime. Opinion. Since then, there hasn’t been a single person shot. Fact. Since then, the crime rate has decreased steadily. Fact. Since 2010, Kennesaw’s violent crime rate was 85.16% lower than the national violent crime rate. Fact.

Notice, I’ve only mentioned a handful of facts and opinions to this point. The opinions are random opinions that I don’t think anybody really cares about. The facts are facts, you can go ahead and check them all right away, although obviously some of the numbers may be slightly different based on the source you use. Yet although they’re all facts, I’m sure a lot of you are already feeling pretty indignant, and all you’re thinking about is how evil guns are and how their only purpose is to kill. I haven’t even given my own personal opinion on guns yet, but I’m sure you already hate it just based on the facts I’ve presented. This is why it’s so difficult to change peoples’ opinion. Because facts are pretty much entirely irrelevant in the forming, and defending, of an opinion (unless, of course, they happen to support your opinion). But this is one example, so I can understand why it shouldn’t necessarily change your opinion on guns – although it should certainly have given you cause to think. Lets try the exercise again.

Switzerland is a beautiful country. Opinion. Switzerland has the fourth highest number of guns per citizen in the world. Fact. The country should ban guns to make it safer. Opinion. In 2011, there were just 46 homicides in the entire country (by any means, not just guns). Fact.

I could keep going on, but it’s pretty useless. The fact is, I could do the same exercise and use the United States as an example, and it would show how in the US there are more guns per person than anywhere else in the world and there are also thousands of gun related deaths every year. The facts all point in different directions, because the fact of the matter is, a correlation between a high number of guns and a low, or high, crime rate, doesn’t imply any sort of causation. The facts are extremely clear in one thing only: they don’t prove any theory. Which, essentially, means the amount of crime in a country is largely independent of how many guns there are. The main culprit is culture and society. People are violent not based on whether or not they can use a gun, but based on a combination of multiple other factors. And it stands to reason, too; think about you and all your friends – do you think they don’t go around killing everyone they dislike because they can’t buy a gun or because they think its morally wrong? Whether or not people are violent depends mostly on their morals – the gun is only the vehicle. A man recently killed dozens of students in a Chinese school with a knife. Should we ban knives? If guns cause violent crime, why didn’t they in Kennesaw, where everyone is legally obliged to carry one, or in Switzerland, where until recently the government gave every citizen a gun after completing the mandatory year of military service?

Besides, you wouldn’t really even need me to tell you any of these facts if you just ran a little thought experiment. I know it’s not easy, but pretend for a second you’re a burglar, or a rapist, or a murderer. Would you feel more comfortable trying to rape, or murder, or break into a house when you know for a fact that your potential victim cannot legally carry a gun, or when you’re almost certain that your ‘victim’ is hiding a glock under their jacket? Just a little food for thought.
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